Public Affairs 5770: Risk and Decision Analysis

Upon successful completion of the course, students will have gained a basic understanding of core concepts, methods and theories in risk and decision analysis. Students who successfully complete the course should be able to: 

• Identify core issues and biases inherent to the decision-making process
• Formulate objectives and outcomes in analyzing risk
• Effectively chart decisions with uncertainties using tools such as decision trees
• Model uncertainty using Monte Carlo approaches and other techniques, interpret modeling results, and perform sensitivity analysis
• Critically evaluate and make arguments involving risk and uncertainty
• Apply the basic concepts learned in the class to other courses taken in the student’s field(s) of study and/or their career.

Texts may be required for this course. Consult your instructor's syllabus for details.

• Risk & Decision Analysis Policy Briefs (1-6), 50 pts (each), 300 pts (total)
• Risk Case Assessment Response Narratives (1-5), 10 pts (each), 50 pts (total)
• Debriefing Response Narratives (1-6), 5 pts (each), 30 pts (total)
• Day 1 Decision Diagnostic, 10 pts
• Final Day Decision Diagnostic, 10 pts
• TOTAL 400 Points

This is an online course in the Glenn College. The class website will be provided via Ohio State University’s Carmen system, at https://carmen.osu.edu/. Three synchronous sessions will be provided in the course; dates provided in the course schedule. Video and audio recordings of class lectures will be part of the classroom activity. The video and audio recording is used for educational use/purposes and may be made available to all students presently enrolled in the course.

The course is designed as a series of six blocks, or units. Each block consists of approximately two weeks of materials and student deliverables that focus on a general learning theme in risk and decision analysis. These blocks are intended to integrate theory, methods, application case and software tools. In this way, students should gain the skillset to both understand the issues and concepts and also be able to develop an approach to measure, analyze or simulate the risk environment to make more informed decisions. 

Each block or unit is broken down into four separate components that align with each of the four integrated items (i.e., theory, methods, case and software tool). First, each block begins with a lecture and accompanying readings that introduces the theory and provides the terminology and the conceptual framework for the learning theme of the block. Second, each block includes a primer that provides the theoretical background for the empirical tools that will be utilized in that block. These will include primers on probability theory and statistics, etc. Third, each block includes a case study analysis in which students will be guided through the application of a case that applies to the learning theme. And fourth, each block will include a lab component in which the software and analytical
approach will be developed and integrated with the case and theoretical concepts developed earlier in the block. The themes of the blocks are: 1) Elements of Decisions; 2) Structuring Decisions; 3) Organizational Decision-making; 4) Expert Elicitation and Subjective Probabilities; 5) Risk Attitudes & Heuristics, and 6) Multi-attribute Models. The lessons and concepts learned will build upon each other and will extend beyond the individual theme or block in which they are introduced. 

Deliverables from each of the six blocks will constitute the core evaluative portion of the course. These deliverables will be analyses written up in the form of professional policy briefs, and written to a specific client to advise them on decision-making in the given risk environment or case. These briefs will be approximately five double spaced pages each, and will require integration of theory, tools, methods and software in order to successfully inform the decision-maker. In this way, students will also gain additional exposure to, and practice with, professional writing in an applied context. Grading rubrics will be provided with each bi-weekly policy brief. Students are permitted to work with a partner on briefs, and students can also work individually if they so choose. Note, students who choose to work with partners will receive one grade for a co-authored submission. 

Students will also be required to submit a Risk Case Assessment response for each case application within each module. These responses will be discussion board posts of approximately 100-300 words, to be shared with the class (or group depending on class size) and your professor and TA(s). These responses will require a depth of review of the case context readings assigned and a thoughtful assessment of the risk(s) and uncertainty involved in a given case and policy application. The intent behind these responses is for students to think critically about the risk context or case before they conduct an analysis and write a policy brief in that policy domain. 

Students will also be required to submit a Debriefing response narrative at the close of each Block. These are discussion board posts of approximately 100-300 words in which students will be asked to reflect on the past module and concisely apply the materials and learning outcomes of the past block to the skillsets needed in their chosen profession, vocation or field of study. 

Students will also have the opportunity to earn extra credit on a case assessment response narrative by providing a meaningful response to another student or students’ posts (maximum 2 points). Oftentimes a third-party viewpoint offers insightful intellectual diversity and perspective on a given risk context that one might not consider on their own (e.g., a sociologist might offer unique insights on economic risk). Students will have two additional days (maximum) to offer a response to posted narratives—although they can offer their insights at any point—to gain extra credit. 

Both the Debriefing response narrative and the Risk Case Assessment response narrative will be graded course components, with an accompanying grading rubric posted on the course website. Late response narratives will not be accepted beyond 11:59PM on the date on which they are due. Response narrative submission prior to the deadline is encouraged, to allow other students ample time to review and respond, if they should have insightful responses to post. 

On the very first week of the course, students will be given a Decision Diagnostic (Day #1 Diagnostic). On the diagnostic, students will be asked to respond to three open-ended questions to assess baseline knowledge (coming into the class) of three content areas relevant to the course. These will only be shared with your professor and you will be asked to reflect on these in your final Debriefing response narrative at the end of the semester. 

At the very end of the course (due on the last day) students will be asked to revisit their original day 1 diagnostic and reflect on what they identified on that diagnostic on the first day (coming into the class) and provide updates based on what they learned over the time of the course. The Final Day Decision Diagnostic will be due by 11:59PM
on the day indicated in the course schedule.