Toward a New Ohio 2018

Ohio has witnessed a steady decline in its economic well-being, compared to the nation as a whole, for more than 60 years.

• In 1953 Ohio’s per capita personal income was 9 percent above the national average. It is now 9 percent below.
• Much of this decline can be traced to the loss of 700,000 high-paying manufacturing jobs since the 1969 peak.
• Many factors are at play, including increased foreign and domestic competition, but the biggest contributor to the loss of manufacturing jobs has been automation.
• Ohio factories today are producing twice what they did 50 years ago with half as many workers.

Paper 1 traces the performance of Ohio’s economy over the past half-century — a time when Ohio’s economy declined compared to the nation overall, in large part due to the loss of high-paying manufacturing jobs. We look at the role foreign and domestic competition and automation have played in this decline, as well as the impact of manufacturing job loss on local economies.

The nature of Ohio’s job market has changed and so have the skills of Ohio workers and the skill needs of Ohio employers.

• Ohio’s workforce is better educated and more diverse than 50, or even 15, years ago.
• Serious gaps exist between the skills employers want and the skills Ohio workers have.
• Estimates of the size and nature of these gaps vary, making it difficult to develop and implement an appropriate plan for addressing Ohio’s current and future skill needs.
• Adding more jobs will not, in and of itself, improve the prospects for Ohio and its workers if the state’s employment composition continues to shift toward lower paying jobs.

Paper 2 focuses on changes in the nature of Ohio’s workforce over this period and workforce challenges the state faces in the future. We pay particular attention to the projected skill demands of Ohio employers and how they match up with the skills Ohio workers possess.

Governors from both parties have worked to improve Ohio’s economic performance, but their interventions have not yet been able to reverse the state’s relative decline.

• Ohio’s challenges are similar to those of other Midwest industrial states.
• There is no silver bullet, but there are a variety of state-level policy options that could improve the lives of Ohioans,
• Ohio’s candidates for governor should be prepared to answer questions about what they propose in these four areas:

1. Creating more high-paying jobs.
2. Improving the match between the skills worker have and those employers need.
3. Exerting influence on national and international policies that affect Ohio.
4. Addressing the needs of “forgotten Ohio,” those people and places who have lost out in the modern economy.

Paper 3 begins with the efforts of Ohio governors over the past 50 years to accelerate growth of the state’s economy. It discusses the politics of jobs as an issue and compares Ohio’s performance, relative to other states, in generating income for its citizens. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy questions we believe the next governor should be prepared to address.
 

The findings, conclusions, and recommendations expressed in this report are the product of research conducted by the author(s) and do not represent the views of either the John Glenn College of Public Affairs or The Ohio State University.