Locked Down or Let Out After COVID-19: Political Systems and Global Incarceration

This study explores the relationship between political systems and global incarceration trends during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on whether the degree of democracy shapes carceral changes. Using data on 87 countries, it examines post-pandemic incarceration rates, differences between pre- and post-COVID-19 periods, and percent changes in rates as proxies for policy responsiveness. The findings reveal that structural inequality (Gini coefficient) and pre-COVID-19 incarceration levels significantly predict post-COVID-19 rates. However, no significant differences were observed in pre- and post-pandemic rates, and percent changes could not be explained by democracy or other predictors. These results highlight the rigidity of global incarceration systems during crises, challenging assumptions about political systems’ impact on justice reforms. The study emphasizes the need for policies promoting adaptability and fairness in global criminal justice systems to address systemic issues and inequality effectively.